Why the Expanded World Cup Format Could Create More Upsets Than Ever?

The expanded 2026 FIFA World Cup format could create more upsets, with 48 teams, third-place qualifiers, travel demands and climate challenges shaping the tournament.

The start of the 2026 FIFA World Cup is now less than a month away.

The line-up was finalised on 31st March when Iraq and DR Congo became the final two nations to qualify for the tournament. Monumental achievements for both countries, but they will not be alone in making only their second World Cup appearance in history.

Bosnia and Herzegovina will be making their second appearance after sensationally dumping out four-time champions Italy on penalties in the UEFA play-offs. Haiti, Panama, and Qatar will also achieve this feat, but Jordan, Uzbekistan, Cape Verde, and Curacao will make history by debuting at the tournament.

With the tournament featuring 48 teams in an expanded format for the first time in its long history, these “smaller” nations along with other underdogs have even bigger reason to believe that they can cause an upset.

Third-Place Qualifiers

The debutants and second timers will not be travelling to Canada, Mexico, and the U.S to make up numbers. They will be going to make their countries proud. Actual betting odds for the World Cup matches will have these countries as perennial underdogs. But while they will not be expected to come runners up on their respective groups, let alone top them, there is a chance they could make the new Round of 32 by finishing in 3rd place. Should there be ties between nations in third, goal difference and then goals scored will be used to determine who qualifies.

Climate Challenges

The FIFA Club World Cup last summer gave us a sneak preview of what the weather and climate would be like for the World Cup this year. And the answer is simply, hot. For countries that are used to warmer, more humid climates and even playing at altitude, there could be at an advantage to be had. Perhaps for the likes of Haiti who take on Scotland in their group.

Logistical Nightmare

One key factor for each nation in deciding where to make base is the locations of the group stage and potential knockout matches. With the tournament spread across three countries for the first time, it is guaranteed that the majority of nations will have to clock up thousands of miles across the tournament. More of course the further into the tournament a country goes.

For example, England face the prospect of playing in Dallas, Boston, and New Jersey, before potentially travelling to Atlanta, the altitude of Mexico City, Miami, Atlanta, and New Jersey if Thomas Tuchel’s side top the group and go all the way. All from their base in Kansas. Fatigue to some extent is expected. Upsets could stem from the lengthy travel times.

Final Thoughts

The new format will certainly add a new dynamic to the competition. There are more opportunities not only for the smaller footballing nations, but also for countries such as Erling Haaland’s Norway, Turkey, Morocco, and Austria to spring surprises. The addition of 16 nations, matches played across three different countries, and the stifling heat are expected to play major roles in determining the winner.

The expanded format has brought more contenders who will be trying to snatch the trophy away from Argentina. With more diverse tactics and playing styles, there will surely be upsets once the action gets underway on 11th June.